basically my gut says spain and my head says germany. the oldest conflict!

so far the results are ambiguous in gut/head conflicts: my gut was right about the netherlands over brazil, and my head was wrong about argentina/germany. but my head was right on ghana/USA.

so i'm going with head over gut here (due to the exact reason you mention) and picking germany. but it's an uncomfortable pick, as my gut is screaming Espana.